ANTOFAGASTA PLC (ANTO) SHARES: 2025 PERFORMANCE IN UK, KEY DRIVERS, MILESTONES AND RISKS —'26 OUTLOOK

How Did Antofagasta Shares Perform in 2025?

Antofagasta plc (LSE: ANTO), a leading Chilean copper mining firm listed on the London Stock Exchange, experienced a volatile yet ultimately constructive year in 2025. Investors in the United Kingdom closely monitored Antofagasta's trajectory, driven by shifting copper prices, global economic sentiments, technological initiatives, and ESG trends.

Share Price Overview

Throughout 2025, ANTO shares experienced moderate gains, appreciating by roughly 14% year-on-year. The share price began the year around £15.20 and closed December at approximately £17.35. This performance follows the recovery seen post-2024 amidst hopes for a sustained rebound in global industrial demand.

The FTSE 100 constituent reported consolidated revenues of $6.1 billion (USD equivalent), a slight increase from 2024. Operating profits grew, buoyed by stable copper production volumes and supported by stronger-than-expected prices in Q2–Q3 2025.

Key Financial Indicators in 2025

• Copper production reached 685,000 tonnes, maintaining consistency with 2024 levels.
• Net profit attributable to shareholders totalled $1.1 billion.
• Net cash increased to $1.6 billion, largely attributed to disciplined capital allocation and favourable market conditions.
• The dividend per share was increased to 39 cents, a sign of confidence in future cash generation.

Copper Demand and Price Impact

The 2025 performance was largely influenced by the price of copper, which averaged $4.25/lb over the year — a rise from $3.95/lb in 2024. This uptick was driven by robust demand for green technologies, especially electric vehicles and solar panel production, primarily from China and the European Union.

Additionally, geopolitical tensions associated with alternative copper supply routes and weather disruptions in other mining regions indirectly benefited Antofagasta’s pricing outlook.

Investor Sentiment and Market Reception

Analyst sentiment throughout the year remained cautiously optimistic. Half-year results released in July exceeded consensus expectations, providing a temporary price rally. JP Morgan and Barclays both revised their price targets upwards during Q3 2025, citing cash flow strength and positive production guidance.

Retail investor interest in the UK remained high, driven by the company’s FTSE status, ESG performance improvements, and its indirect play on the clean energy transition narrative.

What Key Factors Influenced Antofagasta in 2025?

Antofagasta’s 2025 share performance was shaped by a confluence of macroeconomic, commodity, and operational drivers. Understanding these drivers is essential for evaluating potential trends in 2026 and beyond.

1. Copper Supply and Demand Dynamics

One of the most critical drivers is the copper market itself. 2025 saw heightened demand for copper due to global electrification efforts and re-onshoring of critical supply chains. Infrastructure development in Asia, battery production for electric vehicles, and power grid expansions contributed to sustained high demand.

Key markets:

• China: Rebounded strongly post-COVID policy reforms, with increased imports for tech infrastructure.
• EU: Green Deal incentives created an upsurge in copper-intensive industries.
• US: Continued industrial policy support under the Inflation Reduction Act.

2. Currency Movements

With revenues largely denominated in USD and costs in Chilean pesos, Antofagasta benefited from favourable currency trends. The weakness of the peso relative to the US dollar improved cost margins, enhancing free cash flow and profitability metrics.

Additionally, the steady performance of GBP against the dollar provided a neutral translation impact for UK shareholders, making ANTO shares more attractive than some directly dollar-priced rivals.

3. ESG Metrics and Environmental Performance

In line with investor expectations, Antofagasta advanced its ESG agenda in 2025. Water usage per tonne of copper output decreased by 8%, and renewable energy contributed to over 90% of operational energy needs.

Higher ESG scores from Sustainalytics and MSCI added credibility, with institutional funds emphasising sustainability opting to increase exposure. The company’s green targets remain aligned with Chile’s national decarbonisation plans and industry benchmarks.

4. Operational Efficiency and Cost Controls

Operationally, the group improved efficiencies in its flagship Los Pelambres and Centinela mines. Cost per tonne decreased slightly due to increased automation and process control improvements, mitigating inflationary pressures on consumables like reagents and fuels.

Capital expenditure was prudently managed at $1.4 billion, with most directed at plant upgrades and tailing facility extensions as part of long-term sustainability plans.

5. Regulatory and Political Developments

Chile’s political climate in 2025 remained relatively stable, following mining regulatory approval streamlining under President Boric’s administration. While discussions around increased state royalties persisted, no detrimental legislation was enacted during the year.

This policy continuity reassured foreign investors, with Antofagasta stating confidence in its investment outlook through to 2028 under the current framework.

What Risks and Trends Could Shape 2026?

While Antofagasta ended 2025 on solid ground, the path forward into 2026 holds several uncertainties. Investors should keep an eye on commodity volatility, macro-economic conditions, and internal developments.

1. Copper Price Volatility

With copper being a globally traded commodity, Antofagasta remains highly exposed to price swings. Analysts caution that while structural demand is intact, speculative overbuying or a global economic slowdown could pressure prices in 2026.

A return of oversupply — particularly if stalled production resumes in Peru or Indonesia — could weigh down support levels for copper and, by extension, ANTO shares.

2. Cost Inflation and Supply Chains

Although 2025 saw some relief in supply chains, cost pressures from equipment delays, labour shortages, and consumables may escalate again. Rising fuel prices or geopolitical instability around strategic trade routes (e.g., Panama Canal, Red Sea) could strain delivery schedules and impact margins.

Investors should monitor quarterly production and cost metrics closely for any signs of disruption or inefficiency.

3. Chilean Political Landscape

2026 will witness mid-term political activity in Chile that may include renewed debates over mining law reforms, taxation, and indigenous land rights. Shifts in government policy could require revised investor strategies if new royalties or permitting restrictions are fast-tracked.

Antofagasta’s prior ability to navigate regulatory risks provides comfort, but heightened scrutiny is warranted in case of adverse developments.

4. Project Pipeline Developments

Progress on brownfield expansion, notably the second concentrator plant at Centinela, will be pivotal in determining growth trajectory. Delays, cost overruns or environmental opposition could hamper medium-term output projections.

Conversely, timely execution could unlock significant revenue uplift by 2027. Analysts suggest pipeline updates in H1 2026 could provide strong directional cues for share performance.

5. Dividends and Capital Allocation Policy

One ongoing concern among shareholders is how Antofagasta will balance growth capex with dividend consistency. While 2025’s higher dividend was well received, future payments depend on prudent cash flow forecasting and commodity resilience.

Any changes to policy or guidance around minimum payout ratios may create investor uncertainty or volatility in institutional positioning.

6. Global Market Sentiment

External shocks — such as conflicts, central bank policies or trade wars — can impact investor flows, commodity funding, and equity valuations. As a cyclical play tied to global demand, ANTO shares remain sensitive to broader risk perceptions.

In 2026 monitoring inflation trends in the UK, US and Eurozone will be important, particularly if expectations shift interest rates and dampen financial market appetite for risk assets such as mining stocks.

Overall, while Antofagasta enters 2026 with momentum, vigilance is critical amid a shifting global and domestic backdrop. Clarity on project timelines, copper market balance, and Chile’s political commitments are particularly worth watching.