CENTRICA (CNA) SHARES: 2025 PERFORMANCE IN UK, KEY DRIVERS, MILESTONES AND RISKS —'26 OUTLOOK

Centrica Shares in 2025: Overview and Performance Highlights

Centrica plc (LSE: CNA), the British energy services and solutions company, has witnessed a dynamic year in 2025 as it continued navigating the UK energy transition, regulatory landscapes, and consumer energy trends. With its main operations—British Gas, energy trading, and infrastructure services—serving millions of domestic and business customers, Centrica remains a bellwether for UK energy sector sentiment.

In 2025, Centrica shares exhibited significant volatility due to global wholesale energy price fluctuations and regulatory interventions by Ofgem. The company's share price traded within a variable range, largely driven by geopolitical tensions affecting gas supply chains, consumer affordability challenges, and green transition policy developments.

Key Financial Performance Indicators in 2025

• Revenue: Centrica’s total revenue reported YoY growth, largely underpinned by higher commodity prices in early 2025 and greater customer engagement in energy services.
• Operating profit: Operating income saw modest gains, reflecting controlled cost measures, improved customer retention, and efficiency in energy trading divisions.
• Earnings per Share (EPS): Adjusted EPS showed resilience despite margin compression in the domestic energy supply business.
• Dividend policy: The company maintained its progressive dividend outlook, bolstering investor confidence.

Stock Market Response

Throughout the year, the share price reflected a cautious optimism. The stock remained buoyed by improved investor sentiment after Centrica’s commitment to expanding its green portfolio and enhanced customer-focused energy services. However, investor sentiment was tempered by downward pressure from regulatory scrutiny over pricing practices and rising operating costs.

Strategic Developments in 2025

• Renewables Expansion: Centrica bolstered its renewable power investments, aligning with the UK’s 2050 net zero targets.
• Infrastructure Upgrades: It continued upgrading gas storage facilities—including Rough—enhancing domestic energy security.
• Technological Innovation: Investment in AI-driven home energy management tools increased customer acquisitions and ARPU (average revenue per user).

Overall, Centrica’s 2025 performance reflects its evolving identity from a traditional utility to a modern energy solutions provider. By prioritising sustainability, digital integration, and customer-centric models, Centrica has positioned itself for long-term transformation.

Key Factors Behind Centrica’s Share Movements in 2025

Understanding the trajectory of Centrica’s stock performance in 2025 requires assessing core influencing factors—both internal and external—that shaped the CNA ticker on the London Stock Exchange. Several macroeconomic and company-specific catalysts dictated investor behaviour over the 12-month period.

Global Energy Market Trends

• Wholesale Gas Prices: Continued volatility in natural gas pricing following conflict-driven disruptions in European supply chains influenced trading margins and investor anxiety.
• Energy Demand Dynamics: The UK experienced a colder-than-average winter in early 2025, contributing to higher residential gas and electricity consumption.
• Carbon Market Fluctuations: Shifting carbon credit prices under Europe’s Emissions Trading Scheme impacted Centrica’s cost models and energy mix.

Domestic Regulatory Environment

Ofgem’s price cap reforms and new billing transparency rules imposed revenue pressures on domestic supplier margins. Though intended to protect consumers, tighter cap levels squeezed operating margins, affecting earnings outlook and share valuation. Additionally, the UK government’s evolving stance on windfall taxes in the energy sector continued to be a source of market speculation, adding uncertainty to Centrica’s cash flow forecasts.

Corporate Strategy and Execution

• British Gas Business Optimisation: Centrica focused efforts on digitising the British Gas customer experience, reducing churn and improving service efficiency.
• ESG Narrative and Capital Allocation: Growing investor interest in ESG-aligned portfolios favoured CNA’s narrative, as Centrica pledged significant capital toward renewables, hydrogen prep infrastructure, and sustainable heating systems.
• Asset Management and Portfolio Rationalisation: Non-core asset disposals helped strengthen Centrica’s balance sheet, reinforcing market confidence.

Investor Sentiment and Valuation Metrics

The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio remained within normalised utility sector ranges, with growth in institutional interest evident by increased volume in quarterly earnings calls. Retail investors appeared divided—while some perceived Centrica as a defensive stock amid a volatile macro backdrop, others expressed concern over regulatory headwinds and cyclicality.

Ultimately, Centrica’s 2025 narrative demonstrates a company navigating a complex energy landscape with strategic foresight. Operationally it remains committed to controlled growth and disciplined financial management, aiming to balance shareholder returns with long-term sustainability targets.

What to Watch for Centrica Shares in 2026

Looking ahead to 2026, Centrica faces a myriad of opportunities and risks as it builds on its 2025 foundation. For investors tracking the CNA share price, several themes and events will likely shape the performance over the coming year.

Key Catalysts in 2026

• Energy Price Stabilisation: Barring unexpected geopolitical disruptions, forecasts indicate a moderation in wholesale gas and electricity prices, potentially restoring retail margins.
• Regulatory Review Outcome: The findings of Ofgem’s 2025 review on energy market competitiveness—slated to conclude Q2 2026—could redefine supplier profitability frameworks.
• Consumer Energy Behaviour: With smart meters now present in over 70% of UK households, Centrica could unlock efficiency savings and better demand forecasting.

Strategic Plans and Growth Trajectories

Centrica’s ongoing pivot toward renewable and low-carbon assets is expected to accelerate. The company has earmarked greater capital expenditure (CapEx) for 2026 to expand solar and offshore wind exposure, as well as further develop hydrogen-readiness capabilities in both storage and distribution networks.

Additionally, services revenue from British Gas Home Services is forecast to increase through bundling models, maintenance contracts, and AI-integrated diagnostics—improving customer stickiness and average revenue.

Risks to Monitor

• Policy Instability: As the UK approaches its next general election cycle, energy policy shifts could affect subsidies, taxes, and emissions targets—posing risk to investment planning.
• Climate Volatility: Extreme weather events could disrupt supply chains and infrastructure, impacting service delivery and costs.
• Competitive Pressures: New entrants—with AI-driven customer service propositions—may erode market share in high-margin segments.

Analyst Outlook and Valuations

Sell-side consensus around Centrica shares remains cautiously optimistic, with many analysts projecting mid-single-digit price appreciation, assuming stable EBIT levels and improved returns from renewables investments. The dividend yield—maintained at above FTSE 100 average levels—also remains a draw for income-focused investors.

Ultimately, 2026 offers Centrica both challenge and promise. To consolidate and boost shareholder value, the company must continue navigating regulatory complexities and delivering operational execution across its clean energy and services ambitions.