GAMES WORKSHOP 2025 SHARES OUTLOOK: DRIVERS, MILESTONES, RISKS

How have Games Workshop shares performed so far in 2025?

Games Workshop Group plc (LSE: GAW), the iconic British miniature wargaming company behind the globally popular Warhammer brand, continues to attract significant attention among retail and institutional investors in the UK. Known for its consistent profitability, dividend payouts and vertical integration strategy, the firm remains a staple of the FTSE 250. As of mid-2025, GAW has shown relatively stable performance amidst wider market volatility.

In the first half of the year, GAW shares have traded within a narrow range, exhibiting resilience despite global macroeconomic uncertainties. The stock began January 2025 at approximately 9,700p and climbed briefly to 10,200p in March before retracting slightly towards 9,850p in June. Performance has been supported by modest sales growth, a new product pipeline, and licensing expansion in the digital gaming space.

Revenue figures for the fiscal year ending May 2025 are still being finalised, but preliminary updates indicate single-digit revenue growth over 2024. This expansion was primarily underpinned by continued demand across North America and Europe, robust online sales, and an increase in licensed royalty income linked to Warhammer-related digital media projects.

However, growth has not been without challenges. Operational cost increases, particularly due to UK wage inflation and higher resin and logistics costs, have marginally compressed gross margins. Additionally, unfavourable foreign exchange movements have posed a headwind to overseas earnings, with the pound sterling appreciating during the first two quarters.

Despite these hurdles, GAW remains committed to shareholder value, announcing an interim dividend increase in April 2025. The move was positively received by the market and reinforced confidence in the company’s cash generation capability and long-term strategic direction.

Another major highlight in H1 2025 was the expansion of Games Workshop’s leadership team, including the appointment of a new Director of Licensing, signalling the firm’s ambition to further monetise its growing IP portfolio via TV, film, and console game partnerships.

In summary, GAW’s 2025 performance to date reflects a balance of steady core operations, strategic investment, and sustained brand appeal. The firm has proven resilient against economic pressures while maintaining a long-term vision that appeals to both its community-driven fan base and the wider investment community.

What is driving Games Workshop’s growth in 2025?

Games Workshop’s trajectory in 2025 has been shaped by an array of internal and external factors that influence its operational performance and market standing. While the company’s fundamentals remain sound, it is key to understand the various drivers that could determine further upside or downside as the year progresses.

1. Warhammer IP monetisation

The Warhammer universe continues to stand as the cornerstone of GAW’s business model. In 2025, monetisation efforts through licensing agreements and content partnerships have accelerated. A notable development includes the progress of Warhammer TV projects co-produced with US streaming platforms. These initiatives, still in early stages, have bolstered royalty income and widened global brand awareness.

2. Licensing and digital innovation

Royalties from licensed products — including mobile games, console titles, and partnerships with third-party developers — have seen consistent growth. In Q2 2025, GAW announced collaborations with several indie game studios for Warhammer-themed roguelikes, RPGs, and card battlers. These titles are expected to generate both direct royalty revenue and long-term fanbase expansion.

3. International retail expansion

Games Workshop has pursued a measured approach to physical store rollouts in international markets. New stores were opened in the United States, France and South Korea in early 2025, with further locations due in Germany, Canada and Australia later in the year. Each retail opening is strategically designed to cultivate localised communities and enhance omnichannel sales.

4. Community engagement and brand loyalty

In-person events, tournaments, and miniature painting competitions, both hosted and sponsored, have returned in full force post-pandemic. The Warhammer World convention in Nottingham drew a record number of attendees in April 2025. Such events reinforce GAW’s grassroots marketing strategy and support organic brand loyalty, translating into regular purchasing behaviour across product lines.

5. Direct-to-consumer eCommerce growth

Games Workshop continues to refine its eCommerce platform to offer a better customer journey through enhanced UX, pre-order capabilities and exclusive products. Growing direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales remain a pivotal factor in GAW’s margin strength and independence from third-party retail networks.

Combined, these drivers suggest Games Workshop’s growth in 2025 is multifaceted, blending physical and digital initiatives with strategic brand expansions and operational resilience, placing it in a strong position despite wider market headwinds.

What are the risks and what to expect in 2026?

While Games Workshop has shown a stable performance in 2025, careful analysis reveals a number of headwinds and considerations for investors heading into 2026. These range from macroeconomic factors to competitive pressures and internal execution risks.

1. Macroeconomic uncertainty and consumer sentiment

Despite a loyal and niche customer base, Games Workshop is not immune to shifts in discretionary consumer spending. With inflation in the UK gradually decelerating but still above target, and interest rates remaining elevated, pressure on household budgets could moderate product sales in key segments, particularly in emerging markets.

2. Raw material and logistics costs

Costs for plastic resin and shipping have remained volatile throughout 2025. Although partially offset by economies of scale and procurement optimisation, any further spikes — particularly in freight linked to geopolitical disruptions — could impact operating margins in 2026.

3. Slower rollout of new content

Licensing and entertainment projects face tight production schedules and uncertain release cycles. Delays in key Warhammer digital content or underperformance of launched titles could negatively affect revenue expectations in 2026 and dampen investor sentiment.

4. FX headwinds and Brexit trade complexities

The strength of sterling vis-à-vis the dollar and euro can affect overseas income translations. Likewise, Brexit-related import/export complexities continue to add friction to EU operations, especially with any changes to customs equivalents or shipping protocols in 2026.

5. Competitive landscape and hobby evolution

The miniature tabletop sector is seeing increased competition from crowdfunded indie developers and 3D printing communities. While GAW maintains IP control, the growing availability of unlicensed miniatures and third-party content ecosystems poses a long-term brand dilution risk.

2026 predictions

Key developments investors should monitor in 2026 include:

• TV project releases: Visibility on exact release dates for the Warhammer TV projects will be critical to assessing licensing revenue growth.
• Dividend policy: Expectations around continued dividend hikes may hinge on 2025’s full-year financials and shareholder feedback.
• Geographic revenue mix: A noticeable shift in composition towards North America or Asia-Pacific could revalue the stock, reflecting higher growth exposure.
• Volume growth vs. margin growth: Management decisions on pricing and cost control will dictate whether 2026 becomes a volume or margin play.
• New product launches: Any revelations in Q4 2025 around 10th edition rules or a flagship boxed set could materially reset retail expectations.

Overall, while several risks exist, GAW’s steady operational base and brand entrenchment serve as buffers. The balance of recurring shopper loyalty, IP-based monetisation potential, and cautious financial stewardship suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook for 2026, particularly if execution on licensing and media tracks to plan.