GLENCORE (GLEN) SHARES IN 2025: OUTLOOK & 2026 WATCHLIST

How did Glencore (GLEN) shares perform in 2025?

Glencore plc (LSE: GLEN), one of the world's leading diversified natural resource companies, saw an eventful 2025 marked by evolving commodity dynamics, ongoing regulatory scrutiny, and strategic shifts in its portfolio. The company’s shares experienced moderate volatility due to mixed macroeconomic trends and geopolitical influences. As one of the largest constituents of the FTSE 100 index, Glencore’s 2025 performance attracted significant attention from institutional and retail investors alike.

Across the year, GLEN shares oscillated between £4.30 and £5.20, reflecting investor sentiment around commodity trends, particularly in copper, coal, and nickel. The company benefitted from higher-than-expected global copper demand, especially from renewable energy and electric vehicle sectors.

Key performance highlights in 2025:

• Underlying EBITDA: Projected at approximately $22 billion, driven by robust commodity margins and cost discipline.
• Net debt: Maintained below $10 billion, aligning with Glencore’s capital allocation discipline.
• Dividend policy: Continued commitment to shareholder returns, with total distributions (dividends + buybacks) exceeding $7 billion in the period.
• Operational efficiency: Execution of decarbonisation strategies in coal mining and expanded investment in recycling solutions as part of its sustainability agenda.

However, headwinds included softening coal prices in Q2 and Q3 as global thermal coal demand plateaued, coupled with inflationary pressures on the cost of mining services and fuel. Furthermore, GLEN underperformed during the first half relative to sector peers due to a combination of weaker sentiment and currency fluctuations, particularly the strengthening of the pound.

The company’s trading arm, traditionally known for its reliable earnings, produced steady income despite sporadic price movements in oil and gas. Glencore’s vertically integrated model helped cushion against large swings in commodity pricing, but margin compression was evident in segments tied closely to global construction and auto manufacturing slowdowns.

From a shareholder returns perspective, Glencore’s flexibility in adjusting its capital expenditure in real time helped it navigate uncertainties. The company also made progress in advancing several key mineral exploration initiatives and JV partnerships in Africa and Latin America, further underpinning long-term shareholder value.

By December 2025, Glencore’s total market capitalisation stood close to £65 billion, reflecting a modest annual increase buoyed by the late-year uptick in copper and zinc prices, as well as investor confidence in the group’s forward-looking strategy tied to energy transition commodities.

What drove Glencore’s business performance in 2025?

In 2025, multiple factors influenced Glencore’s operational and financial trajectory. The group’s performance was shaped significantly by its exposure to critical energy transition metals, prudent capital allocation, and the continued strength of its global marketing division. Below are the key drivers that shaped Glencore’s performance through the year:

1. Energy Transition Commodity Demand

The surging demand for copper, cobalt, and nickel – all core to Glencore’s portfolio – drove revenue acceleration. With electric vehicle (EV) production ramping up in Europe and Asia, copper prices increased by nearly 15% through the year, directly benefiting Glencore’s production operations in Zambia and the DRC.

2. Resilience of the Trading Division

Glencore’s extensive global marketing division mitigated macroeconomic risks. The division provided strong earnings consistency regardless of commodity cycle fluctuations, particularly in energy products such as oil, LNG, and coal. Its arbitrage capabilities meant smoother revenue streams when market volatility spiked in mid-2025.

3. Optimised Production Performance

The company maintained high operational efficiency across its mining and processing assets, particularly in South America and Central Africa. Management initiatives to digitise operations and deploy AI-enabled forecasting tools improved asset productivity and lowered downtime, bolstering profits.

4. Capital Discipline

Glencore continued to pursue a disciplined capital allocation strategy. It prioritised strengthening its balance sheet, keeping net debt low while maintaining capital reserves for opportunistic acquisitions. Return of capital to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks was executed effectively and well received by investors.

5. ESG Integration & Regulatory Adherence

Sustainability and ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) targets became more embedded in Glencore’s operational ethos. The group advanced its carbon reduction goals, including methane capture initiatives at coal assets in Australia. Regulatory scrutiny remained high, particularly around historical business practices and new green compliance frameworks in Europe and the US, but Glencore demonstrated greater transparency to mitigate reputational and compliance risk.

6. Divestment and Asset Rationalisation

Glencore continued divesting underperforming assets and streamlined its portfolio, most notably exiting select thermal coal ventures in Asia. These moves aligned with investor pressure to decarbonise and focus more on renewable-linked metal production. A growing emphasis on battery recycling also emerged as a long-term strategy.

7. Geopolitical Navigation

The company’s success in navigating complex jurisdictions—like the DRC, Bolivia, and Kazakhstan—was essential. Political stability and mining regulation clarity in these regions supported continued production expansion. However, some operational risks remain, particularly with tax disputes and logistical bottlenecks in certain jurisdictions.

Conclusion

Collectively, Glencore’s performance was underpinned by a combination of favourable commodity pricing, stable trading revenue, and capital allocation efficiency. While the company faced headwinds in ESG compliance and regional politics, it made measurable strategic progress towards long-term sustainability and shareholder alignment.

What risks and milestones should investors watch in 2026?

Looking ahead to 2026, investors in Glencore shares (GLEN) should remain vigilant of several risks, while also monitoring key strategic milestones as the company seeks to reposition itself as a long-term leader in energy transition commodities.

1. Macroeconomic Headwinds

As global economic uncertainty persists into 2026, particularly amid tightening monetary policies and slower growth forecasts in China and the Eurozone, demand for industrial metals could face downward pressure. Prolonged US interest rate hikes or a European recession would impact base metal demand, affecting Glencore’s EBITDA outlook.

2. Commodity Price Volatility

Commodity prices, particularly copper and coal, remain vulnerable to both supply chain disturbances and speculative trading. If Chinese construction continues to decelerate or clean energy adoption slows, Glencore’s key revenue lines may weaken. Additionally, increased competition in the EV battery supply chain could push down prices of cobalt and nickel.

3. ESG & Legal Risks

Despite progress, ESG remains both a focus and a challenge. The company continues to deal with legacy litigation risks associated with corruption investigations in the US and UK. Any new legal action or reputational damage could impact investor sentiment and lead to higher compliance costs.

4. Political Risk in Mining Jurisdictions

Given Glencore’s heavy exposure to politically sensitive regions, such as the DRC, Zambia, and Indonesia, the possibility of adverse mining law changes, tax increases, or labour disputes remains elevated. Resource nationalism is a growing trend, and policy shifts could affect existing and planned operations.

5. Currency Risks

With operations and revenue denominated across various currencies, fluctuations remain a concern. A strengthening pound or volatile emerging market currencies could impact net margins and reporting. Hedging strategies are in place but may not fully offset valuation risks.

Key Opportunities and Milestones:

• Katanga Expansion: Production increases at this key DRC copper mine are scheduled throughout 2026, potentially boosting global output and revenues.
• Battery Recycling: Pilot programs for EV battery recycling in Europe are expected to scale into commercial operations by H2 2026, unlocking a new income stream tied to circular mining and ESG compliance.
• Australian Coal Operations: Strategic review of coal operations to be concluded in early 2026, with potential M&A or spin-off outcomes impacting capital use and investor perception.
• Digital Transformation: AI and automation rollouts in logistics and mining could materially reduce costs and uplift production output.

Analysts' sentiment moving into 2026: Cautiously optimistic. Most rate GLEN as “Hold” or “Outperform,” given the diversified earnings base, continued cost controls, and strategic positioning in future-facing metals. However, downside risks from commodity correction and ESG litigation remain a deterrent for more aggressive ratings.

Conclusion: The 2026 outlook for Glencore hinges on diversified commodity exposure, execution of transition strategies, and avoidance of regulatory or geopolitical setbacks. Shareholders should closely track asset developments, commodity trends, and ESG initiatives to gauge long-term return potential.