LONDON STOCK EXCHANGE GROUP (LSEG) SHARES: 2025 PERFORMANCE IN UK, KEY DRIVERS, MILESTONES AND RISKS —'26 OUTLOOK

How did London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) perform in 2025?

In 2025, London Stock Exchange Group plc (LSEG) demonstrated robust operational performance amid a fast-evolving global economic landscape. As a major player in financial market infrastructure and data analytics, the group navigated market volatility with consistent revenue growth driven by its diversified business model. Investors closely watched actions taken under its ongoing post-acquisition synergy programme following the 2021 Refinitiv deal.

From January to December 2025, LSEG’s share price appreciated approximately 14% on the London Stock Exchange, outperforming the broader FTSE 100 by a fair margin. Shareholder sentiment was bolstered by strong resilience in its data and analytics division and growing demand for real-time pricing, regulatory reporting tools, and ESG datasets. The group's total revenue for the year is projected to have surpassed £9.5 billion, reflecting organic growth and pricing initiatives.

Key share price drivers in 2025:

• Data & Analytics expansion: Buoyed by high-margin recurring revenues and growing market demand.
• Capital Markets segment recovery: Volumes increased with volatility in global bond and foreign exchange markets.
• Synergy realisation: Continued integration of Refinitiv operations and automation yields efficiency gains.
• Dividend confidence: Annual dividend per share increased by over 7%, reassuring long-term investors.
• AI integration strategy: Accelerated deployment of AI-powered financial tools caught market interest.

Operational execution remained strong, with the group hitting several important strategic milestones, including launching new analytics platforms and cross-border initiatives. Notably, LSEG also successfully navigated evolving regulatory landscapes in both the UK and EU. This was crucial for maintaining service reliability across the clearing, trading and post-trade ecosystem.

In terms of profitability, LSEG’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) margin remained close to 48%, benefiting from cost discipline and increased automation. The technology infrastructure has remained resilient, with no major outages reported, which also maintained investor confidence.

Analyst sentiment on LSEG shares ended the year broadly positive. Several financial institutions reiterated "Buy" ratings on the basis of the group’s recurring revenue mix and continued innovation. However, concerns related to data cost inflation and regulatory scrutiny in Europe began to surface late in the year.

As the dust settles on 2025, LSEG is seen as a standout case of a legacy financial services provider transitioning effectively into the data and technology arena.

What were the key strategic milestones for LSEG in 2025?

LSEG achieved several important strategic milestones in 2025, reinforcing its ambition to be a global leader in financial data infrastructure. These included successful product launches, new strategic partnerships, technology investments and the execution of longstanding integration goals. Together, these initiatives are poised to have a long-lasting impact on the group’s revenue streams heading into 2026 and beyond.

Major developments and milestones in 2025:

• Microsoft partnership expansion: LSEG deepened its strategic collaboration with Microsoft, integrating AI into wealth data products and launching co-developed data platforms.
• Data monetisation progress: Enhanced product tiers and efficiency pricing in financial analytics created new monetisation channels for clients globally.
• Refinitiv integration milestones: Final stages of system consolidation completed, with performance metrics ahead of the original 2023–2026 synergy programme timelines.
• New trading instruments launched: LSEG introduced innovative fixed-income and ESG-themed products which saw healthy volume adoption from institutional investors.
• Enhanced clearing operations: LSEG's clearing business, LCH, launched a new central counterparty module compatible with EU's MICA regulatory framework.

Beyond internal developments, the macroeconomic landscape also provided external catalysts. Renewed market volatility — particularly centred around interest rate uncertainty in the U.S. and UK — fuelled derivatives trading volume, giving LSEG’s post-trade segment an unexpected boost. The group also saw a rise in demand for its benchmark services and real-time reference data among financial institutions preparing for new Basel regulatory implementations.

Another noteworthy growth factor was the increased institutional focus on ESG reporting. LSEG rolled out a new ESG scoring product aimed at mid-cap European equities, entering a relatively untapped segment. Their ability to quickly deploy this product came off the back of their technology integration and scalable data infrastructure.

On the customer front, subscription growth was markedly strong within the financial services sector as regulated firms sought greater data consistency and compliance tools. High customer retention rates, especially in their desktop analytics and wealth management segments, allowed LSEG to maintain a predictable revenue base even as competitors grappled with client churn.

Furthermore, progress in cloud transformation also bore fruit. Applications such as Workspace Analytics and secure API access saw notable client expansion. These capabilities give LSEG a technological edge into 2026, especially as investment managers demand lower-latency, AI-enhanced tools to stay competitive.

The synergy benefits arising from 2021’s Refinitiv acquisition reached closer to the top end of LSEG's projected value estimates. This provided greater clarity on margin progression heading into 2026, lifting sentiment among long-term shareholders looking for sustainable EPS growth.

In summary, 2025 was defined by strategic delivery across multiple fronts, clever deployment of partnerships, and reinforced operational efficacy — all of which established a solid platform for next year’s priorities.

What are the risks and key factors to watch in 2026?

As London Stock Exchange Group transitions into 2026, investors remain broadly optimistic but cognisant of a range of potential risks and catalysts that could shape the year ahead. The balancing act will involve effectively leveraging strategic foundations built in 2025 while navigating macroeconomic, regulatory, and competitive uncertainties.

Primary risks facing LSEG in 2026:

• Regulatory tightening: Expected new data governance regulations in the EU and UK regarding market access and real-time pricing transparency may pressure cost structures and margins.
• Competitive pressure: Global data rivals, including Bloomberg and ICE, continue to invest heavily in analytics and infrastructure, challenging LSEG’s market share in key segments.
• Cloud cost inflation: Increased reliance on cloud providers like Microsoft may lead to margin compression if pricing escalates beyond forecasted levels.
• Geopolitical shocks: Escalating global tensions could trigger market volatility, directly impacting trading and listings activity volumes.
• Integration fatigue: Although Refinitiv integration is largely complete, extended IT harmonisation efforts could still weigh on employee bandwidth and operational agility.

Despite these headwinds, several tailwinds and strategic levers are expected to support forward growth:

• Continued AI integration: AI-powered analytics tools embedded into real-time portfolios and trading systems offer long-term margin expansion opportunities.
• ESG segment growth: Strong demand for enhanced ESG scoring, indexing services, and regulatory alignment platforms signals room for scalable monetisation.
• Potential new listings: Renewed interest in tech and renewable IPOs may rejuvenate the Exchange segment.
• International expansion: Continued rollout of LSEG services into Asia-Pacific regions could diversify revenue away from sluggish UK growth.
• Steady dividend policy: The group’s progressive dividend strategy may sustain investor interest during volatile capital markets.

Looking forward, analysts estimate that LSEG could deliver mid-single-digit revenue growth in 2026, assuming stable economic conditions. Share buyback programmes could also be renewed depending on free cash flow generation. Institutional investors will watch closely for margin trajectory signals—particularly from the growing data analytics and risk management segments.

Another angle for attention lies in UK capital markets competitiveness. Ongoing consultations from HM Treasury and the FCA on listing rules may influence LSEG’s market structure positioning in Europe and beyond. Should UK-based IPO pipelines recover, this could provide a meaningful boost to the exchange’s trading volume and infrastructure throughput.

Lastly, technology dependency creates both opportunities and exposure. As LSEG continues scaling its digital platforms, operational resilience and cybersecurity will remain under scrutiny—any breaches could dent reputational capital and regulatory goodwill.

To sum up, while the medium-term foundations appear firm, 2026 will be a litmus test of LSEG’s ability to adapt amid complexity. Diversified exposure across segments gives some strategic buffer, but execution will be key in defending LSEG’s valuation premium as the finance-tech convergence accelerates.