PERSHING SQUARE HOLDINGS (PSH) SHARES: 2025 PERFORMANCE IN UK, KEY DRIVERS, MILESTONES AND RISKS —'26 OUTLOOK

How did PSH shares perform in 2025?

Pershing Square Holdings (PSH), the closed-ended investment company managed by Bill Ackman's New York-based Pershing Square Capital Management, had a compelling performance year in 2025. Listed on the London Stock Exchange and a constituent of the FTSE 250 index, PSH continued to attract attention from UK-based institutional and private investors. The share price saw notable volatility, yet closed the year with a robust total return, propelled by a recovery in its core holdings, improved market sentiment, and persistent share buybacks.

Performance summary:

• Share Price increase: PSH shares rose approximately 14% over the calendar year, outperforming many peers in the hedge fund and closed-ended investment company sectors listed on the LSE.
• Net Asset Value (NAV): The NAV per share increased by roughly 17%, driven primarily by solid performances from key holdings such as Chipotle Mexican Grill, Universal Music Group, and Restaurant Brands International.
• Discount narrowing: The discount to NAV, a longstanding concern among investors, narrowed from approximately -31% at the start of 2025 to -24% by December end, aided by consistent share repurchases and improved investor sentiment.

UK investor sentiment:

UK-based investors showed growing interest in PSH following a series of outreach efforts and shareholder engagement initiatives. The listing on the LSE provides UK investors accessibility without currency constraints and with favourable tax considerations compared to US alternatives. The continued strength in the US equities underlying PSH’s portfolio also contributed to confidence among local investors, particularly those focused on North American exposure.

Dividends and capital returns:

PSH maintained its semi-annual dividend policy, with an annualised yield of around 1.4% on the 2025 year-end closing price. The dividend was covered comfortably by the underlying portfolio’s trading gains. However, PSH emphasises total return over income distribution, meaning capital appreciation remains the primary investment thesis.

Summary: For 2025, PSH shares demonstrated resilience and delivered strong risk-adjusted returns for disciplined investors. Amid inflation uncertainties and evolving interest rates in both the US and UK, PSH’s blend of concentrated equity investments, long-term strategy, and opportunistic positioning provided sustained rewards.

What drove PSH’s 2025 share movement?

Numerous factors underpinned the share movement of Pershing Square Holdings in 2025. From investment decisions and market trends to operational strategy and external economic conditions, each element influenced the performance of PSH on the London Stock Exchange. As Ackman’s style remains activist-driven and conviction-led, significant shifts in the portfolio had visible market impact.

1. Portfolio composition and stock performance

• Key stock gains: PSH’s top holdings in consumer-facing US firms such as Chipotle, Lowe's Companies, and Hilton had strong operational years. Surging consumer spending and resilient US growth supported double-digit returns in these assets.
• Universal Music Group: A core portfolio component, its continued monetisation of streaming growth and licensing deals added to stable performance and increased investor confidence.
• Activist influence: PSH’s influence campaigns in Restaurant Brands and Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (formerly Ackman's historical activist target sectors) showcased further strategic manoeuvres generating upside potential.

2. Share buybacks and capital allocation

In 2025, PSH continued its aggressive buyback programme, repurchasing roughly 5.5% of its outstanding shares. This not only reduced share count but also sought to address the persistent NAV discount, boosting investor confidence. The board has reaffirmed its commitment to capital return strategies, contributing to robust investor engagement in the UK market.

3. Interest rates and macroeconomics

The macro backdrop in 2025 included moderating inflation in the US and UK, with central banks easing monetary policy compared to 2023–2024 cycles. Lower rate expectations favoured equity-heavy investment vehicles like PSH, supporting increased risk-taking behaviour among investors.

4. Investor engagement and structural profile

Following pressure from institutional shareholders, PSH increased investor transparency and issued regular shareholder letters discussing performance, strategy, and risks. This led to positive investor sentiment, aligning with UK regulatory preferences for access to information. Moreover, the FTSE 250 inclusion reaffirmed PSH's role in diversified UK portfolios, particularly among wealth managers and pension schemes seeking international exposure with an activist overlay.

5. Currency headwinds mitigated

Despite being USD-denominated in underlying assets, PSH trades in GBP on the LSE, reducing currency friction for UK investors. GBP/USD stability in late 2025 following earlier Brexit-related volatility minimised forex-related valuation swings for local holders.

Summary: PSH’s 2025 trading activity reflected the interplay of dynamic capital deployment, successful core holding performance, strategic buybacks, macroeconomic alignment, and evolving investor relations. All were crucial in shaping its upward share price trend within the UK context.

What to expect from PSH in 2026?

Looking ahead to 2026, UK investors should monitor a range of evolving variables that may impact the performance trajectory of Pershing Square Holdings. While the investment thesis remains rooted in disciplined value-investing and activist engagement, both internal and external factors could present hurdles or opportunities.

1. Watchlist for existing and new investments

• Portfolio repositioning: As is customary each year, PSH may exit or trim existing positions while initiating new ones. Ackman’s adaptability could generate tradeable upside but equally poses timing risks for retail investors following post-disclosure.
• Speculative positioning: There is speculation PSH may expand into technology or AI-exposed names, should valuations standardise. Investors should assess how such additions align with Ackman's traditional investment criteria.

2. Potential structural upgrades

Increased investor pressure and regulatory tightening in the UK may prompt structural overhauls. These could include:

• Enhanced shareholder rights—a rising concern among UK institutional investors.
• Improved NAV pricing and transparency—especially given persistent trading at a NAV discount.
• Consideration of dual filings or broader market listings—which could address geographic limitations and scanning by global fund screens.

3. Key macroeconomic considerations

Looking towards 2026, these broader themes are likely to influence PSH:

• US interest rate regime: If the Federal Reserve pivots further dovish post-inflation control, PSH’s equity-heavy portfolio stands to benefit from valuation expansions.
• Global political cycle: US elections and potential regulation on corporate governance, digital markets, and tax could impact PSH holdings significantly.
• UK–US trade exposure: Any UK-centric macro shocks or GBP weakness could increase the volatility of PSH for local investors.

4. Risks to monitor

Despite a relatively positive 2025, not all is risk-free. Areas of concern include:

• Reputational risks: Any activist missteps or underperformance of new campaigns can dent investor confidence rapidly.
• Geopolitical uncertainty: As many PSH investments have North American operations exporting globally, tensions in Asia-Pacific or commodity disruptions can strike margins.
• Discount normalisation failure: If NAV discount persists or widens, it may frustrate UK long-term shareholders expecting convergence aided by buybacks.

5. Medium-term NAV expansion outlook

Management continues to project an internal return target ranging from 12% to 18% annually. Whether macro conditions and portfolio resilience can deliver such figures in practice will depend heavily on strategic rotation and cost discipline.

Summary: For 2026, UK investors in PSH must weigh solid historical returns with a clear-eyed view on continued activist discipline, policy shifts, geopolitical headwinds, and structural evolution. While PSH remains one of the more transparent and actively managed hedge fund vehicles available via the London market, careful position sizing and monitoring are advisable.