WEIR GROUP (WEIR) SHARES: 2025 PERFORMANCE IN UK, KEY DRIVERS, MILESTONES AND RISKS —'26 OUTLOOK

Overview of Weir Group’s 2025 Share Performance

Weir Group plc (LSE: WEIR), a leading British engineering firm specialising in mining technology, is a key constituent of the FTSE 250 index. In 2025, the company’s shares have experienced a complex trajectory shaped by both macroeconomic and industry-specific factors. As the UK economy stabilised further post-inflationary pressures and supply chain disruptions waned globally, Weir Group benefited from increased investment in mining operations and focus on sustainable engineering solutions.

Weir's core operations, including the provision of high-performance equipment and services for the mining sector, saw increased demand as commodity prices rebounded. Projects involving copper, lithium, and rare earth elements benefited the group, aligning with global growth in electric vehicles and renewable energy infrastructures.

By mid-2025, WEIR shares saw a moderate year-to-date gain, outperforming some peers on strength in order books, margin resilience, and forward guidance. The group's interim results posted in July 2025 highlighted a revenue increase of 8% year-on-year, with EBITDA margins hovering around 17%. The AMC (Aftermarket Contribution) segment continued to be a resilient revenue stream, lending consistency to results amid a volatile external backdrop.

However, headwinds such as cost inflation, foreign exchange uncertainty (particularly with a strong US dollar), and tightening profitability in certain geographies provided tempered expectations for the second half of 2025. Still, investors remained confident in the company’s volume-led growth strategy and focus on digital services within mining operations.

Weir also achieved a significant sustainability milestone in 2025 by advancing its "Mission Zero" strategy — a commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. This green industrial push has gone hand in hand with growing investor attention, particularly from ESG-focused funds.

As such, 2025 can be characterised as a year of constructive progress anchored in strategic alignment with global decarbonisation trends, strong operational execution, and focused cost management. Shares traded in a range between 1,680p and 1,950p throughout the year, maintaining consistent institutional interest despite global market caution.

What Drove Weir Group’s 2025 Share Movement?

The trajectory of Weir Group’s share price in 2025 was shaped by a convergence of macroeconomic, industrial, and company-specific drivers. Understanding these key levers is essential for investors assessing the viability of continued growth into 2026.

1. Demand for Critical Commodities

Weir's success is closely aligned with commodity cycles — copper, lithium, and rare earths being particularly critical in 2025 due to their role in decarbonisation initiatives globally. The company's mining technology services benefited from increased capital expenditure by multinational mining firms, with global copper demand expected to grow over 4% in 2025, partly offsetting weaker demand in traditional energy commodities.

2. Aftermarket Revenue Stability

One of Weir’s differentiators lies in its robust aftermarket services, which offer maintenance, spare parts, and workflow optimisation. This business segment provided significant revenue consistency, contributing over 55% of total revenues in 2025. Clients increasingly turned to Weir to optimise plant uptime and equipment longevity—both cost-effective strategies in an uncertain inflationary environment.

3. Digital Transformation in Mining

Investment in digital analytics, sensor-based monitoring, and predictive maintenance tools allowed Weir to command a premium in technology-driven efficiency services for mining operations. These capabilities not only strengthened its client value proposition, but also created cross-selling opportunities within established supply chains — creating margin uplift in multiple contracts signed in 2025.

4. ESG Alignment and Reputation Gains

With climate risk increasingly priced into portfolios, Weir’s push to deliver sustainable mining solutions reinforced its appeal to institutional investors. In 2025, the company entered a new five-year strategic partnership with a major South American miner, which included low-emissions pump systems and digitally integrated plant support. Such partnerships bolstered WEIR's profile as a long-term sustainability innovator in the industry.

5. Macro Stability in Key Markets

Stabilising inflation in the UK and steady fiscal policies in core operating regions such as Australia, Chile, and the USA led to more predictable revenue streams. Additionally, Weir’s past efforts to exit the oil & gas pressure-pumping segment (divested fully in 2021) continued to pay off by sharpening its portfolio focus on future-ready mining tech.

These combined drivers underpin a more value-oriented narrative for Weir Group — a company poised to benefit from forward-thinking industrial evolution while maintaining resilient financial performance amidst cyclical pressures.

Risks and What to Watch Going Into 2026

Despite the tailwinds seen in 2025, investors should not underestimate the headwinds and uncertainties that could challenge Weir Group in 2026. The company’s relatively global organisational footprint leaves it exposed to geographic and policy-induced volatility. The following risks and watchpoints are central to future share performance outlooks:

1. Fluctuating Commodity Prices

While elevated demand for green-energy metals has supported Weir through 2025, this trend may not offer immunity from global shocks. A correction in copper and lithium prices due to overcapacity or slowing Chinese demand would affect capital expenditure programmes among miners — Weir’s primary client base.

2. Currency Volatility

Weir's revenue is heavily USD-denominated, while reporting remains in GBP. Continued volatility in sterling or strengthening of the US dollar relative to emerging market currencies could produce unpredictable EPS outcomes. For instance, a surging US dollar generally reduces competitive pressure on USD revenues but compounds conversion losses when assessed in GBP.

3. Supply Chain Disruptions and Input Costs

Although many threads of pandemic-era supply shocks have eased, geopolitical tensions (especially in shipping lanes) and rising material costs (industrial metals, energy inputs) still pose recurring threats. Weir’s high-spec products rely on quality components that are not easily substituted, potentially impacting margins if logistical concerns return in strength.

4. Regulatory Constraints and ESG Overpromises

Regulations surrounding environmental performance and personnel safety are evolving at a pace that may outstrip corporate agility. Weir’s stated goals on sustainability will increasingly require rigorous external validation and ROI transparency. If targets become difficult to meet — either due to insufficient regulatory support or cost/focus misalignments — investor scepticism may diminish ESG investment flows.

5. Valuation and Growth Assumptions

With many institutions pricing in double-digit growth in aftermarket and digital services, margin slippages or project delays could damage sentiment. As Weir trades near historical valuation averages, future upside may now hinge more on executional excellence and less on thematic tailwinds alone. Investors will be closely watching operational KPIs in Q1 2026, especially order intake and service backlog conversion.

In summary, while Weir Group enters 2026 on stable footing with a diversified service model and growing global ESG credentials, it must navigate a mix of operational complexity and macroeconomic unpredictability. Investors interested in long-term exposure to mining tech that aligns with net-zero goals may see current share levels as a reasonable entry point — albeit one that requires diligent monitoring as 2026 unfolds.